Forecast Tab

The Forecast tab shows actual and forecast data for a selected model. The tab is split into two parts. The top part (Chart View) shows a graph of the data and the bottom part (Grid View) provides a grid showing the data values. On the toolbar there are two dropdown lists.

  • Model Selection. The first dropdown list displays the model and may be changed by using the list or the Previous/Next buttons that are on either side of the list.
  • Provider Selection. The second dropdown is only shown if the model specification includes a Forecast Weight Set with multiple weather/XDriver scenarios. In this case, the top item in the list is the text, (Model Forecast), which shows the weighted forecast. The remaining items in the list display the name of the contributing scenario forecasts.

Chart View

A variety of data are available in the graph and the grid. These data are described below.

  • Forecast. This is the final forecast which starts with the Scaled forecast and includes any manual edits that have been made by the user.
  • Scaled. Scaling is used in retail forecasting systems to adjust a meter group upward when a new contract starts and downward when a contract ends. The Scaled forecast starts with the Tuned forecast and applies scaling adjustments if ADU scaling is applicable for the meter group used in the model.
  • Tuned. Tuning refers to across day calibration and within day tuning adjustments. These adjustments are a form of error correction based on the performance of the model over recent historical days. The Unadjusted forecast is modified based on the calibration and tuning adjustments if error correction components are activated.
  • Unadjusted. The forecast starts with the raw model calculations, which are labeled Unadjusted. If multiple weather providers are used, this is the weighted combination of these forecasts.
  • Actual. Actual values are the actual usage from the model Data Source.
  • Alternative Forecast. These are the alternative model forecasts based on weather provider and/or XDriver scenario assignments associated with a Forecast Weight Set. Each forecast is identified by the name assigned to the scenario for that Weight Set alternative. If there is only one forecast, the weight set contributor will not be shown.

In the Chart, the user can select which of the data series to plot using the checkbox legend. Legend items are shown for alternative forecasts only if multiple contributors are included in the Forecast Weight Set that is assigned to the model. Remaining legend items are Forecast, Actual, Tuned, Scaled, and Unadjusted.

Grid View in Multi-Day Zooms

At these zoom levels (5 day, 1 week, …, and All) the grid will show the Forecast values with one column for each forecast day. The top rows for a column show statistics for that day, followed by interval data for the day with one row per interval. The values shown in the grid are the final Forecast values that have been combined across weather providers, calibrated and tuned, scaled, and manually edited. These values can be edited by direct entry or by using the Right Click Menu options: Adjust Values and Install Selection.

A second dropdown list on the Toolbar will be present if the forecast involves multiple weather providers. To view the final Forecast values, select the top item in the list (Model Forecast). To view the forecasts for an individual weather provider, select from the weather providers, which appear below the Model Forecast item in the second dropdown list. When one of the weather providers is selected, the grid will show statistics and data for the selected provider after the forecast has been calibrated and tuned (if error correction is activated) and scaled (if applicable for a meter group). Manual adjustments cannot be made at the weather provider level.

Grid View in One-Day or Two-Day Zoom

At these zoom levels, the columns are used to show the details of the forecast steps. The top rows show statistics for the column. In one-day zoom, these are statistics for that day. In two-day zoom, these are statistics across the two days. Statistics in each column are followed by interval data with one row per interval. The columns show the Actual values in the right-hand column. Moving to the left, Unadjusted, Tuned, and Scaled values are presented. The left-most column shows the final forecast which includes any manual edits to the forecast.

A second dropdown list on the Toolbar will be present if the forecast involves multiple weather providers. To view the final Forecast values, select the top item in the list (Model Forecast). In this view, the provider forecasts will be shown in the far right-hand columns after the Actual data. The remaining columns (Unadjusted, Tuned, Scaled, and Forecast) are as described above. To view detail on the forecasts for an individual provider, select from the weather provider items, which appear below the Model Forecast item in the second dropdown list. This will show details for the provider forecast, with the Actual column at the far right, preceded by the Unadjusted forecast for the provider, preceded by the Tuned and Scaled forecasts. It is not possible to edit the provider level forecasts. Only the final combined forecast can be edited through the user interface.

Right-Click Menu

On the Forecast Tab grid, the final forecast values can be modified through direct entry or by using the Right-Click Menu.

  • Direct Entry. The user can directly enter forecast values on the Model Forecast page in multi-day views and in the Forecast Column in 1-day and 2-day views.
  • Adjust Values. In multi-day views, the Adjust Values option brings up a list of adjustment macros that will be applied to the selected forecast cells or to the selected column. In 1-day and 2-day views, the Adjust Values option is only available for the Forecast column.
  • Install Selection. This option is available only on the 1-day and 2-day views. It allows the user to install a segment of data from one of the forecast steps (an individual weather provider forecast, Unadjusted model forecast, Tuned forecast or Scaled forecast) and install the selection as the Forecast. This operation copies the data from the selected segment and pastes the values into the Forecast column.

The list of adjustment options on the Adjust Values menu provides alternative ways to modify the data in a selected data range. When the range is a part of a day, three options are enabled.

  • Add to Values. This option brings up an Adjust Values text box. Enter the value to add and press OK. The entered value will be added to all of the selected cells.
  • Multiply Values. This option brings up an Adjust Values text box. Enter the multiplier value (e.g., enter 1.02 to increase by 2%), and this multiplier will be applied to all selected cells.
  • Set Values. This option brings up an Adjust Values text box. Enter a value and this value will be pasted into all selected cells.

When the selected range is an entire day or set of days additional options are available. Some of these options involve adjusting maximum or minimum values up or down while adjusting other intervals to hold total energy for the day fixed. The offsetting adjustments are made proportional to the distance of each interval from the peak value in the case of an adjustment to the daily peak. When both maximum and minimum values are adjusted, the offsetting adjustments are made proportional to the distance of each interval from the midpoint of the load range.

  • Add Energy (e.g., add 500 MWh). This is similar to Add to Values with Add Energy sharing out the value added proportionally to each selected cells.
  • Multiply Energy (e.g., 1.02 for a 2% increase). This is the same as Multiply Values.
  • Add Peak (e.g., add 30 MW to the peak). This adjusts the daily maximum to the desired value keeping total daily energy the same.
  • Multiply Peak (e.g., 1.02 for a 2% increase to the peak). This adjusts the daily maximum value by the multiplier keeping total daily energy the same.
  • Set Maximum (e.g., set peak to 500 MW). This sets the daily maximum to the entered value keeping total daily energy the same).
  • Set Maximum & Minimum (e.g., set peak to 500 MW and minimum to 250 MW). This sets the daily maximum and minimum to the entered values keeping total daily energy the same.
  • Shift Intervals (e.g., 2 to shift the peak to occur two intervals later). This shifts the interval daily.

Generating a System Forecast

Forecasts require management of input data through the Weather Module, XDrivers Module, Meters Module, and Meter Groups Module. Once these data are in place, the model must be configured (Model Properties) and estimated. If Back Calibration is used, the calibration factors must be calculated. When these components are complete, the forecast may be generated using two main methods.

  • Forecast Action. Forecasts for individual or groups of models are executed using the Forecast action described in the Model Actions section. This action results invokes the calculation of a new forecast, including tuning, scaling, override adjustments, and displays the Forecast on the Forecast Tab.
  • Generate System Forecast. The Generate System Forecast available in the Tools menu, invokes the calculation of a new forecast, including tuning, scaling, and override adjustments for all models and schedules (Schedule Module, List Tab ) and displays the results on the Forecast Tab and the Schedule Module, Forecast Tab.

Typically, system forecast are configured as automated tasks.

Actions

The following common actions are available on the Model Forecast Tab toolbar and in the View, Actions, and Tools menus.

The following actions are only available in the Model Module in the Actions menu and on the toolbar. These actions are further described in the Model Actions section.

  • Export to MetrixND.
  • Score.
  • Estimate.
  • Calibration Backcast.
  • Forecast.
  • Import Estimated Project File.
  • Export Estimated Project File.
  • Auto-Assign Template.

The Models Module contains configuration tools relevant to configuring and forecasting models. These tools are discussed in the following sections.