Forecast Tab

The Forecast Tab provides graphical (Chart View) and numerical (Grid View) results of the forecast at the schedule level, aggregated by interval from the contributor forecasts. The full range of forecast data in the system is available for viewing. However, the displayed range is based on the Date Range, Zoom and the Data Range Selection Bar.

The displayed forecast is controlled using the Schedule and Contributor dropdown lists on the toolbar.

  • Select Schedule. The first dropdown list allows the user to select the Schedule.
  • Select Contributor. The second dropdown list selects the Contributors. The first item in the list is the text: (All Contributors). This option shows the Schedule as the weighted sum of all Contributors. The remaining items in the list allow show individual contributors to the Schedule.

Chart View

The Forecast tab shows actual and forecast data for a selected Schedule and Contributor. The chart shows separate lines for the following:

  • Actual. This series display historic values including the data status (Bad, Filled, Load Control, Load Event, and Incomplete).
  • Estimated. This series is estimated actual data. When one or more actual contributor data is missing, the missing data are replaced with forecast data.
  • Model. This series is the model results. Model results are the weighted sum of contributor models prior to user adjustments.
  • Calibrated. This series is the model results for Top-Down Calibration based on the Calibration Rule Configuration.
  • Published. This is the installed Published Forecast resulting from the Install Published Forecast action (Schedule Actions) or the most recent published forecast.
  • Forecast. This is the final Schedule or Contributor forecast including any manual edits.
  • Similar Days. These series are the similar days resulting from the Find Similar Days and Select Manual Similar Days actions (Schedule Actions) based on the Similar Day Settings.
  • Upper Bound. Upper bounds are defined as the percent difference from the Forecast based on the parameter setting in System Settings, Schedule Bounds.
  • Lower Bound. Lower bounds are defined as the percent difference from the Forecast based on the parameter setting in System Settings, Schedule Bounds.

These series and data status markings may be toggled on or off using the check boxes in the upper right corner of the chart. Data points are viewed by selecting the chart and moving the mouse over the chart.

Grid View in Multi-Day Zooms

At these zoom levels (5 day, 7 day, …, All) the grid will show the Forecast values with one column for each forecast day. The top rows for a column show statistics for that day, followed by interval data for the day with one row per interval. The values shown in the grid are the Schedule Forecast values. These values can be edited by direct entry or by using the Right Click menu options, Adjust Values and Install Selection.

Grid View in One-Day or Two-Day Zoom

At these zoom levels (1 day, 2 day), the columns are used to show comparisons of the Schedule Forecast. The top rows show statistics for the column. In one-day zoom, these are statistics for that day. In two-day zoom, these are statistics across the two days. Statistics in each column are followed by interval data with one row per interval. The columns correspond to the displayed Chart series. In addition to these series, the Difference column shows the difference between two series on the grid. Configuration of the Difference column is performed in System Settings Tab, MetrixIDR UI section. Three settings are required: DifferenceCol, DifferenceColFirst, and DifferecentColLogic.

Right-Click Menu

On the Forecast Tab grid, the final forecast values can be modified through direct entry or by using the Right-Click menu.

  • Direct Entry. The user can directly enter forecast values on the Model Forecast page in multi-day views and in the Forecast Column in 1-day and 2-day views.
  • Install Selection. This option is available only on the 1-day and 2-day views. It allows the user to install a segment of data from one of the forecast steps (an individual weather provider forecast, Unadjusted model forecast, Tuned forecast or Scaled forecast) and install the selection as the Forecast. This operation copies the data from the selected segment and pastes the values into the Forecast column.
  • Adjust Values. In multi-day views, the Adjust Values option brings up a list of adjustment macros that will be applied to the selected forecast cells or to the selected column. In 1-day and 2-day views, the Adjust Values option is only available for the Forecast column.

The Right-Mouse Menu allow quick access to modifying the forecast using the Adjust Values and Install Selection option.

When the range is a part of a day, three Adjust Values options are enabled.

  • Add to Values. This option brings up an Adjust Values text box. Enter the value to add and press OK. The entered value will be added to all of the selected cells.
  • Multiply Values. This option brings up an Adjust Values text box. Enter the multiplier value (e.g., enter 1.02 to increase by 2%), and this multiplier will be applied to all of the selected cells.
  • Set Values. This option brings up an Adjust Values text box. Enter a value and this value will be pasted into all of the selected cells.

When the selected range is an entire day or set of days additional Adjust Value options are available. Some of these options involve adjusting maximum or minimum values up or down while adjusting other intervals to hold total energy for the day fixed. The offsetting adjustments are made proportional to the distance of each interval from the peak value in the case of an adjustment to the daily peak. When both maximum and minimum values are adjusted, the offsetting adjustments are made proportional to the distance of each interval from the midpoint of the load range.

  • Add Energy (e.g., add 500 MWh). This is the same as Add to Values.
  • Multiply Energy (e.g., 1.02 for a 2% increase). This is the same as Multiply Values.
  • Add Peak (e.g., add 30 MW to the peak). This adjusts the daily maximum to the desired value keeping total daily energy the same.
  • Multiply Peak (e.g., 1.02 for a 2% increase to the peak). This adjusts the daily maximum value by the multiplier keeping total daily energy the same.
  • Set Maximum (e.g., set peak to 500 MW). This sets the daily maximum to the entered value keeping total daily energy the same).
  • Set Maximum & Minimum (e.g., set peak to 500 MW and minimum to 250 MW). This sets the daily maximum and minimum to the entered values keeping total daily energy the same.

Actions

The following common chart controls and actions are available on the Forecast Tab accessed in the View menu, Action menu, and on the Toolbar:

In addition to the common actions, the actions are available on the Forecast Tab toolbar and in the Actions menu. The following actions are further described in the Schedule Actions section.

  • Forecast.
  • Publish.
  • Export Forecast to XML.
  • Install Published Forecast.
  • Find Similar Days.
  • Select Manual Similar Day.
  • View Similar Days Statistics.