Forecast Tab

The Forecast tab shows actual and forecast data for a selected model based on the Forecast action (Five-Minute Model Actions). The tab is split into two parts. The top part (Chart View) shows a graph of the data and the bottom part (Grid View) provides a grid showing the data values. On the toolbar there are two drop-down lists.

  • Model Selection. The first drop-down list displays the model and may be changed by using the list or the Previous/Next buttons that are on either side of the list.
  • Forecast Selection. The second drop-down is only shown if the forecast involves multiple weather providers. In this case, the top item in the list is the text, "(Model Forecast)", shows the weighted forecast. The remaining items in the list display the contributing forecasts based on one of the Weather Provider forecasts.

Chart View

A variety of data are available in the graph and the grid. These data are described below.

  • Forecast. This is the final forecast based on all forecast model, blending, and smoothing.
  • Calibrated. This series calibrates the Smoothed Model Forecast based on the Cross-Day Bias Adjustment settings (Manage Cross Day Bias Set).
  • Bias. This series is not displayed in the Chart, but available in the Grid View. This series is the difference between the Calibrated and Smoothed series.
  • Smoothed. This series the Blended forecast smoothed using the moving average method assigned in the TOU Parameter Settings (Manage TOU Parameter Sets), the Fcst Filter Method setting.
  • Blended. This series is constructed from the Level, Ramp Rate, and Day Ahead models. The series is blended based on the TOU Parameter Settings (Manage TOU Parameter Sets), Level Horizon and Ramp Rate Horizon settings.
  • Day Ahead. These values are produced by the Day Ahead Forecast Method.
  • Level. These values are produced by the Level Model.
  • Ramp Rate. These values are produced by the Ramp Rate Model and converted to Level space.
  • Actual. Actual values are the actual usage from the model Data Source.
  • Filtered. Filtered values as a result of the Filter Data action (Five-Minute Model Actions).
  • Alternate Forecasts. These are the alternative model forecasts based on weather provider and/or XDriver scenario assignments associated with a Forecast Weight Set. Each forecast is identified by the name assigned to the scenario for that Weight Set alternative. If there is only one forecast, the weight set contributor will not be shown.
  • Weather Providers. These series are named based on the Weather Provider name. If multiple Weather Providers are included in the system, then one series is included for each Weather Provider. The forecast values are the result of the Level, Ramp Rate, and DayAhead models blended using the TOU Parameter settings assigned to the model.

In the Chart, the user can select which of the data series to plot using the check-box legend. Legend items are shown for each series.

Grid View in Multi-Day Zooms

At these zoom levels (5 day, 7 day, …, All) the grid will show the Forecast values with one column for each forecast day. The top rows for a column show statistics for that day, followed by interval data for the day with one row per interval. The values shown in the grid are the final Forecast values that have been combined across all forecast steps and manually edited. These values can be edited by direct entry or by using the Right-Click Menu options: Adjust Values and Install Selection.

Grid View in One-Day or Two- Day Zoom

At these zoom levels, the columns are used to show the details of the forecast steps. The top rows show statistics for the column. In one-day zoom, these are statistics for that day. In two-day zoom, these are statistics across the two days. Statistics in each column are followed by interval data with one row per interval. The columns show the Actual values in the right-hand column. Moving to the left the series show the construction steps to obtain the final forecast. . The left-most column shows the final forecast which includes any manual edits to the forecast.

Only the final forecast can be edited through the user interface or using the Right-Click menu options.

Right-Click Menu

On the Forecast Tab grid, the final forecast values can be modified through direct entry or by using the Right-Click Menu.

  • Direct Entry. The user can directly enter forecast values on the Model Forecast page in multi-day views and in the Forecast Column in 1-day and 2-day views.
  • Adjust Values. In multi-day views, the Adjust Values option brings up a list of adjustment macros that will be applied to the selected forecast cells or to the selected column. In 1-day and 2-day views, the Adjust Values option is only available for the Forecast column.
  • Install Selection. This option is available only on the 1-day and 2-day views. It allows the user to install a segment of data from one of the forecast steps and install the selection as the Forecast. This operation copies the data from the selected segment and pastes the values into the Forecast column.

The list of adjustment options on the Adjust Values menu provides alternative ways to modify the data in a selected data range. When the range is a part of a day, three options are enabled.

  • Add to Values. This option brings up an Adjust Values text box. Enter the value to add and press OK. The entered value will be added to all of the selected cells.
  • Multiply Values. This option brings up an Adjust Values text box. Enter the multiplier value (e.g., enter 1.02 to increase by 2%), and this multiplier will be applied to all the selected cells.
  • Set Values. This option brings up an Adjust Values text box. Enter a value and this value will be pasted into all the selected cells.

When the selected range is an entire day or set of days additional options are available. Some of these options involve adjusting maximum or minimum values up or down while adjusting other intervals to hold total energy for the day fixed. The offsetting adjustments are made proportional to the distance of each interval from the peak value in the case of an adjustment to the daily peak. When both maximum and minimum values are adjusted, the offsetting adjustments are made proportional to the distance of each interval from the midpoint of the load range.

  • Add Energy (e.g., add 500 MWh). This is the same as Add to Values.
  • Multiply Energy (e.g., 1.02 for a 2% increase). This is the same as Multiply Values.
  • Add Peak (e.g., add 30 MW to the peak). This adjusts the daily maximum to the desired value keeping total daily energy the same.
  • Multiply Peak (e.g., 1.02 for a 2% increase to the peak). This adjusts the daily maximum value by the multiplier keeping total daily energy the same.
  • Set Maximum (e.g., set peak to 500 MW). This sets the daily maximum to the entered value keeping total daily energy the same).
  • Set Maximum & Minimum (e.g., set peak to 500 MW and minimum to 250 MW). This sets the daily maximum and minimum to the entered values keeping total daily energy the same.
  • Shift Intervals (e.g., 2 to shift the peak to occur two intervals later). This shifts the interval daily.

Actions

The following common actions are available on the Five-Minute Models Data Tab toolbar and in the View, Actions, and Tools menus.

The following actions are only available in the Five Minute Models Module in the Actions menu and on the toolbar. These actions are further described in the Five-Minute Model Actions section.

  • Export to MetrixND.
  • Estimate.
  • Forecast.
  • Filter Data.
  • Import Project File.
  • Export Project File.

The Five-Minute Models Module contains configuration tools relevant to configuring and forecasting models. These tools are discussed in the following sections.