Manage Cross Day Bias Set

The forecast may be adjusted based on recent residual patterns using Cross Day Bias Sets. Cross Day Bias Sets are defined using a string of forecast archives to calculate the bias adjustment. The bias adjustment is applied after the 5-minute forecast is completed. Note that the bias adjustment can only be applied if sufficient historical archive data have been saved. When the archive data are insufficient, the adjustment is not calculated.

The Cross Day Bias Set dialog has two tabs, Adjustment Settings and Profiles.

Adjustment Setting Tab

The Adjustment Setting tab defines the archive and calculation parameters. The following fields must be configured for each Cross Day Bias set.

  • XDay Bias ID. This field is identifier for the Cross Day Bias Adjustment Set.
  • Archive Intervals Ahead. This field sets the historical archive to be saved and used in the Cross Day Bias calculation. The field is populated with an integer of 1 or greater. For example, a value of 2 sets the archive to save the 10-minute (2 intervals) ahead archive for use in the bias calculation.
  • Moving Ave Lags. Adjustment parameters may be smoothed before they are applied. This setting controls the centered moving average method for smoothing. For example, a value of 5 defines a 5-period centered moving average.
  • Days Back. This setting identifies the number of historical days from the current day to be used in the bias calculation. A value of 1 or greater should be used in this setting. This parameter is used in conjunction with the By DOW (Day of Week) option. The following two examples illustrate how the Days Back and By DOW parameters work.
    • Days Back = 2 and By DOW unchecked. This setting indicates that the bias is calculated based on the last two historical days of archives.
    • Days Back = 2 and By DOW checked. This setting indicates that the bias is calculated based on the last two historical days with the same day of week definition (e.g. the last two Mondays)
  • By DOW (Day of Week). This setting is used in conjunction with the Days Back parameter and indicates whether the bias calculation is performed on consecutive historic days or on the same day type.
  • Exclude Holidays. This setting removes holidays from the bias calculation. Holidays are identified in the assigned Holiday Set (Manage Holiday Sets).
  • Adj Profile ID. This field is the assigned Adjustment Profile defined on the Profiles Tab.

To add a Cross Day Bias Set, selected the Add button on the toolbar. This action inserts a new XDay Bias ID into the list. Edit the XDay Bias ID and configure the parameters. Changes may be saved by selecting the OK or Apply buttons. The Cancel button closes the dialog without saving. Cross Day Bias sets may be deleted using the Delete button no the toolbar.

Profiles Tab

This tab defines the Adjustment Profiles used in the Cross Day Bias Set. Adjustment Profiles are weight patterns to increase or decrease the bias adjustment. For example, when the weight = 1, the full bias adjustment is included in the forecast. However, if the weight = 0.5, only half of the bias adjustment is included in the forecast. Profiles are assigned to the XDay Bias ID on the Adjustment Settings Tab.

  • Adj Profile ID. This field is identifier for the Adjustment Profile.
  • Description. This field is the description of the Adjustment Profile.

Each Adjustment Profile requires at least one interval weight. Intervals are added using the Insert Contributor button on the toolbar to add a contributor. For each interval, a weight must be entered.

  • Interval. This number is the of forecast periods where the weight will be applied. Typically, the number of intervals needed match the Days Back parameter.
  • Weight. The weight is the multiplier applied to the bias adjustment. Typically, the weight is 1 or less.

Actions

The following common actions are available on the Toolbar