Estimation Tab

This tab shows results from model estimation. When a model is estimated, the historical predicted values, estimation residuals, and estimation summary statistics are stored in the forecasting database and displayed as a set of graphs and data grids on the Estimation Tab. The Tab has two selection boxes that control the estimation view. The first box is the Model Selection box. This box selects the model from the List Tab. The second box is the Series Selection box. This box controls whether the Level or Ramp Rate model is viewed, if available. The model estimation tab has four quadrants.

  • Actual, Predicted, Residual Chart. Shows actual values, predicted values, and residuals at the interval level.
  • Scatter Plot of Actual versus Predicted. Shows actual values on the y-axis plotted against predicted values on the x-axis. Displays all intervals in the zoom that are not marked bad.
  • Estimation Statistics. Shows model fit statistics for each interval (MAD, MAPE, AdjRSq, StdError)
  • Model Coefficients. Shows model coefficients and estimation statistics for each interval and variable.

Actual, Predicted, Residual Charts

The upper left quadrant shows line charts of the Actual, Predicted and Residual values for the Level or Ramp Rate model. The Actual and Predicted values are plotted against the left-hand axis and the residual values are plotted against the right-hand axis. Chart components are:

  • Title. The title includes the Model ID and description and the full estimation date range for the model. If the chart is too compressed, this element will not be shown. Stretch the chart area (make it taller) to make this visible.
  • Check Box Legend. The legend appears in the upper right-hand corner of the chart and includes a check box for each of the three series. Uncheck a series to remove it from the chart. If the chart is too compressed, this element will not be shown. Stretch the chart (make it taller) to make this visible.
  • Data Range Selection Bar. The full range of estimation data is available for viewing. However, the displayed range is based on the Date Range, Zoom and the Data Range Selection Bar.

Scatter Plot of Actual versus Predicted

The upper right quadrant shows a scatter plot with predicted interval values on the x-axis and actual interval data values on the y-axis. Chart components include:

  • Title. This appears in the upper left-hand corner of the chart and is hard coded to Actual vs. Predicted.
  • Check Box Legend. Interval points are color coded, and the legend appears in the lower left portion of the chart. The color coding is by season, and the four seasonal check boxes can be used to display or hide a specific season. If the chart is too compressed, this element will not be shown. Stretch the chart (make it taller) to make this visible.
  • By default, the scatter plot shows data for all intervals. The Scatter Range Zoom action synchronizes the line chart zoom (Actual, Predicted, Residual Charts), with the Scatter Plot. To enter this mode, use the View menu option, Scatter Range Zoom, or select the corresponding Toolbar button. Repeat this action to return the chart to show the full data range.

Users can mark entire days of data as Bad by selecting the Mark Bad Mode button from the tool bar. If this is selected, the user can click on a point in the scatter plot to mark that day’s load data as bad. The point will disappear from the scatter plot when it is clicked.

Estimation Statistics

The lower left quadrant shows the model estimation statistics. The following statistics are calculated for the model estimation period.

  • Mean absolute deviation (MAD).
  • Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).
  • Adjusted R-Squared value (AdjRSq).
  • Standard error (StdError).

Separate statistics are shown for each interval that is modeled. These statistics can be exported to an XLSX file by selecting Export Grid to Excel on the Tools menu or by pressing the corresponding Toolbar button.

Model Coefficients

The lower right quadrant shows the model coefficients and related statistics. For each model and variable, the following statistics are shown:

  • Coefficient. The estimated coefficient for the variable.
  • T-Statistic. The ratio of the coefficient to its estimated standard error.
  • Std. Error. The estimated standard error for the coefficient.
  • P-Value. The probability statistic testing the hypothesis that the coefficient is equal to zero.

The grid can be sorted, filtered and grouped. Group by Model to see all the coefficients for each interval model as a group.

Actions

The following common actions are available on the Five-Minute Models Data Tab toolbar and in the View, Actions, and Tools menus.

The following action is available only on the Estimation Tab in the Model Module in the View Menu and on the toolbar

  • Scatter Range Zoom. The Scatter Range Zoom synchronizes the Scatter Plot with the Actual, Predicted, Residual Charts.
  • Mark Bad Mode. The Mark Bad Mode action applies to the Scatter Plot. When activated, the user can select data points in the Scatter Plot and changes the data status to Bad for the entire day of data.

The following actions are only available in the Five-Minute Models Module in the Actions menu and on the toolbar. These actions are further described in the Five-Minute Model Actions section.

  • Export to MetrixND.
  • Estimate.
  • Forecast.
  • Filter Data.
  • Import Project File.
  • Export Project File.

The Five-Minute Models Module contains configuration tools relevant to configuring and forecasting models. These tools are discussed in the following sections.