Model Tab

The Model Tab contains the specifications for the Level, Ramp Rate, and Day-Ahead Forecast Method used to develop the five-minute forecast. These components and their interactions are described in the Five-Minute Model Forecast Framework. Modeling options based on this framework are discussed in the Model Options section.

This tab is divided into four sections.

  • Level Method.
  • Ramp Rate Method.
  • Day-Ahead Forecast Method.
  • Regression Settings.

For Level and Ramp Rate Models, there are two model specification options, Regression and MetrixND Custom Model. The Regression model specifications are discussed in the Form Based Regression Model section. The MetrixND Custom Model specifications are discussed in the MetrixND Model Requirements, Model Template Requirements section.

Level Method

When used, the Level Model applies to the first N intervals as assigned in the Manage TOU Parameter Sets, Level Horizon parameter. The following settings are available for the Level Method.

  • Use Level Model. This checkbox activates the Level Method and configuration settings.

  • Smooth Day Transitions. When checked, forecast values are smoothed between day transitions using a 4-period centered moving average.

  • Regression. When selected, the Level Model uses a Form Based Regression Model as selected in the Level Model Spec selection box.

  • MetrixND Custom Model. When selected, the Level Model uses a custom MetrixND model. The model is assigned using the Level Model Template selection box. When activated, the following fields may be configured.

    • Level Include Bad Data. When checked, data marked as Bad are passed to the custom MetrixND model.

    • Exogenous XDrivers. The assignment of exogenous XDrivers must be coordinated with the Model Template that is selected. For a template to expect an XDriver, there must be a data table in the template that is named the same as one of the XDriver concepts in the system. The following fields are enabled when the assigned template requires one or more XDriver concepts. To add an XDriver, select the Assign XDriver or Assign Model button. The Assign XDriver button is activated for general XDriver Concepts. The Assign Model button is activated for XDriver Concept that are defined as models. When an XDriver is selected for one of the concepts, the following fields are populated.

      • XDriver Concept. The table has one row for each Concept that is configured in the template. When an XDriver is selected, the Concept is shown in the first field. Only one XDriver can be assigned for each Concept that is configured in the template.

      • XDriver ID. This is the text identifier for the XDriver variable that has been selected. It is the same as the text that appears on the XDrivers List tab.

      • XDriver Type. This is the frequency (MPI) of the XDriver (Monthly, Daily, 60 for hourly, 30 for half hourly, 15 for quarter hourly). The appropriate value will be installed by the system when an XDriver is selected through the user interface.

  • Estimate. This button calls the Estimate action for the Level Model as described in the Five-Minute Model Actions section.

  • Level Needs Estimation. This is a status indicator that displays whether the Level Model needs re-estimation. If the field is yellow, the Level Model needs to be estimated prior to being used. If the field is green, the Level model is estimated and ready to be used. The status field includes the date and time of the last estimation action.

Ramp Rate Method

When used, the Ramp Rate Model applies to the first N intervals as assigned in the Manage TOU Parameter Sets, Ramp Rate Horizon parameter. The following settings are available for the Ramp Rate Method.

  • Use Ramp Rate Model. This check-box activates the Ramp Rate Method and configuration settings.

  • Regression. When selected, the Ramp Rate Model uses a Form Based Regression Model as selected in the Ramp Rate Model Spec selection box.

  • MetrixND Custom Model. When selected, the Ramp Rate Model uses a custom MetrixND model. The model is assigned using the Ramp Rate Model Template selection box. When activated, the following fields may be configured.

    • Ramp Rate Include Bad Data. When checked, data marked as Bad are passed to the custom MetrixND model.

    • Exogenous XDrivers. The assignment of exogenous XDrivers must be coordinated with the Model Template that is selected. For a template to expect an XDriver, there must be a data table in the template that is named the same as one of the XDriver concepts in the system. The following fields are enabled when the assigned template requires one or more XDriver concepts. To add an XDriver, select the Assign XDriver or Assign Model button. The Assign XDriver button is activated for general XDriver Concepts . The Assign Model button is activated for XDriver Concept that are defined as models. When an XDriver is selected for one of the concepts, the following fields are populated.

      • XDriver Concept. The table has one row for each Concept that is configured in the template. When an XDriver is selected, the Concept is shown in the first field. Only one XDriver can be assigned for each Concept that is configured in the template.

      • XDriver ID. This is the text identifier for the XDriver variable that has been selected. It is the same as the text that appears on the XDrivers List tab.

      • XDriver Type. This is the frequency (MPI) of the XDriver (Monthly, Daily, 60 for hourly, 30 for half hourly, 15 for quarter hourly). The appropriate value will be installed by the system when an XDriver is selected through the user interface.

  • Estimate. This button calls the Estimate action for the Level Model as described in the Five-Minute Model Actions section.

  • Ramp Rate Needs Estimation. This is a status indicator that displays whether the Ramp Rate Model needs re-estimation. If the field is yellow, the Ramp Rate Model needs to be estimated prior to being used. If the field is green, the Ramp Rate model is estimated an ready to be used. The status field includes the date and time of the last estimation action.

Day Ahead Forecast Method

The Day Ahead Forecast Method is combined with the Level and Ramp Rate models using the assigned Blending Weights. The following settings are available for the Day-Ahead Forecast Method.

  • Use Day Ahead Forecast. This check-box activates the Day-Ahead Forecast Method and configuration settings.
  • Day-Ahead Forecast Source. This selection box defines the source for the Day-Ahead Forecast. Select the Source using the search button to the right of the selection box. This button displays the available model for assignment.
  • Blending Weights. This selection box defines the Blending Weights to apply when combining the Day-Ahead forecast to the Level and Ramp Rate models. These weights represent the weight on the combined Level and Ramp Rate forecast, while 1-weight represented the weight on the Day-Ahead forecast spread to the five-minute level. The day ahead forecast is spread to the five-minute level using polynomial splines. Use the drop-down box to select the Blending Weights. To configure Blending Weights select to the button to the right of the drop-down box open the Manage Weight Sets dialog. Configure Blending Weights on the Blending Tab.

Regression Settings

If used, Regression Settings overwrite the default settings for the Regression method (Form Based Regression Model) for both the Ramp Rate and Level Models. For the Regression specifications that include weather, weather variables are constructed for heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD). The system is configured to use a specific weather variable (System Parameters Tab) for calculating the degree day values. The system allows up to three default cut points for CDD calculations and three default cut points for HDD calculations. For each cut point, weather variable slopes are estimated separately for weekdays and weekend days.

The cut points can be modified for an individual model. The override settings are included at the bottom of the Regression settings group.

  • Override CDD Cut Points. This checkbox activates the option to override the System default cooling degree-day (CDD) cut points for the selected model. The user can enter up to three CDD cut point values.
  • Override HDD Cut Points. This activates the option to override the System default heating degree-day (HDD) cut points for the selected model. The user can enter up to three HDD cut point values.

Other settings are available to exclude data or to disallow negative forecasts. The settings are:

  • Reg. Exclude Load Control Data. If this box is checked, days that contain data marked as Load Control will not be used in model estimation.
  • Reg. Exclude Load Event Data. If this box is checked, days that contain data marked as Load Event will not be used in model estimation.