Backcast Rule Tab

Backcasts are model calculations based on actual loads through the interval before the backcast begins and actual weather. By comparing backcasts with actual values, the user can evaluate model accuracy independent of weather forecast errors.

The Backcasts Tab allows the user to configure a Backcast Rule and specify its parameters. The list of Backcast Rules can be expanded to view the Backcast contributors. Backcast contributors are models and may be managed by using the Insert Contributor and Remove Contributor buttons on the toolbar. Backcast contributors may be Models, Portfolios, Five Minute Models, or Schedule items.

Example

Configuring a backcast rules requires adding a rule, setting the Backcast Rule fields, and adding contributors. An example of configuring an backcast rule is provided in Backcast Example.

Backcast Rule Fields

Fields in the Backcast List describe the Backcast and identify the backcast properties. Fields displayed on the Backcasts Tab are as follows.

  • Backcast ID. User defined name used to identify the backcast rule.
  • Description. Backcast rule description.
  • Rule Type. The type of backcast to generate. Options include Within-Day and D+1 to D+7. A custom option allows the user to configure a custom backcast by populating the Start Offset and Duration fields.
  • Start Offset. Start Offset must be a negative number and is specified in days. The Start Offset specifies how many days back from the current date to begin the Backcast.
  • Duration. The duration must be a positive number. The duration value specifies which day from the start date is saved from the Backcast calculations. For example, a 2 is interpreted as saving the second day of the backcast.
  • Clock Time. The backcast will simulate a forecast that is run at the time specified in this field on the start day. The simulation will include historical load data available at that time. For example, if the Clock Time is set to 08:15, data through 8:15 in the morning will be provided to the model and data after 8:15 in the morning will be hidden from the model. The clock time can be set down to the 5-minute level.
  • Calibrate and Tune. The check box indicates whether tuning factors should be calculated and applied to the backcast. When the box is checked, calibration and tuning factors are applied based on the date and time of the backcast.
  • Blending Weight Override. The user may override the blending weights used for generating the backcasts for blended models. This allows the system to generate backcast of just the Day Ahead or Hour Ahead components of the blended models. It also allows for evaluation of alternative blending weights.
  • Active. Checking the Active Box indicates an Active Item. Backcast rules that are inactive cannot be executed by externally scheduled tasks. Inactive rules can be executed manually by selecting the rule and executing a Backcast action.
  • Custom1 – Custom20. User-defined custom fields.

Contributor Fields

The following is a list of fields in the contributor grid. Except for the Destination Node, contributor properties are obtained from the underlying object to be archived and cannot be edited. Fields displayed in the contributors list are as follows.Type. Denotes the object Type for the contributor. Object Types that can be included in a backcast rule are models, portfolios, and schedules.

  • Source Node Type. Denotes the object Type for the contributor. Object Types that can be included in a backcast rule are models, portfolios, five-minute models, and schedules.
  • Source Node. The text identifier of the contributor. This identifier will be the Source Node Type and the contributor ID.
  • Description. The description associated with the contributor.
  • MPI. Minutes per interval for the contributor (60 for hourly, 1440 for daily).
  • UOM. Unit of measure for the contributor (e.g., kWh or kW).
  • Active. Checking the Active Box indicates the active status of the contributor. Backcast Rules do not save data for inactive contributors.
  • Destination Type. The object type for the destination. Data can only be archived to an Archive.
  • Destination Node. The backcast variable location. The destination is the assigned location for storing the backcast data. When creating a new backcast contributor, the "(New Archive)" label directs the backcast to create a new archive in the Archive List.

Actions

The following common actions are available on the Backcasts Tab:

The following actions are only located on the Backcast Tab in the Rules Configuration Dialog:

  • Backcast.
  • Backcast Range.

These actions are defined below.

Backcast

This tool is available on the Backcasts Tab of the Rules Configuration dialog and allows the user to execute a Backcast Rule manually. The Backcast will be executed even if the Active flag is not checked. To run a backcast:

  • Select (or multi-select) a Backcast in the Backcasts list. Use Shift/Click and Control/Click actions to select multiple rules in the list.
  • Click the Backcast button on the toolbar.
  • A progress dialog displays while the Backcast process is taking place.
  • Once the progress dialog disappears, the newly generated Backcast data will be available for viewing.

Backcast Range

This tool is available on the Backcasts tab of the Rules Configuration dialog and allows the user to execute a Backcast Rule manually over a specified date range. The Backcast will be executed even if the Active flag is not checked. To run a backcast range:

  • Select (or multi-select) a Backcast on the Backcasts list. Use Shift/Click and Control/Click actions to select multiple rules in the list.
  • Select the Backcast Range button on the toolbar.
  • The Select Date Range dialog box appears. Set the start date with the left calendar control and the end date with the right calendar control. Select OK.
  • A progress dialog displays while the Backcast process is taking place.
  • Once the progress dialog disappears, the newly generated Backcast data will be available for viewing.