Model Method - MetrixND Custom Model

The MetrixND Custom Model method implements a model template, which is a MetrixND model specification. The template is populated with data and is then used to estimate model parameters and generate forecasts. The incorporation of MetrixND functionality (transformation tables, regression models, and neural network models) makes this method the most flexible modeling method supported. The template requirements are in the MetrixND Model Requirements section.

If the MetrixND Custom Model is selected, the user specifies the Template, Exogenous XDrivers, and in the case of blended model templates, the blending weights to combine the two models. Also, a check box is included to control whether data that is marked as Bad should be passed to the model or not. If the option Include Bad Data is not checked then Source data marked as Bad will show as missing in the MetrixND model template.

All custom model specifications also have the option to include Holiday Sets and Daylight-Saving variables. These options are set on the General Tab of the Model Properties dialog.

Within the MetrixND Custom Model option, the user specifies the following settings:

Template. A Template file is a MetrixND project file that specifies the variables used for modeling, specifies transformations of these variables, and contains the statistical model specification. Templates support modeling with Daily, Hourly (60), Half-Hourly (30), Quarter-Hourly (15), and 5-Minute (5) MPI frequencies. The Manage Templates dialog defines available model template files that can be selected.
Blend. The blend option is a checkbox indicating that the MetrixND template contains two model specifications. Typically, these are day-ahead and hour-ahead specifications. The blending weights determine how quickly the hour-ahead results are phased out to the day-ahead results. If the Blend checkbox is checked, the system will expect a template that is configured for blending with a set of hour-ahead (HA) forecast tables and a set of day ahead (DA) forecast tables in the project file.
Blending Weights. This dropdown appears below the Template selector and is activated if the Blend option is checked. This allows the user to select the Blending Weight Set to be assigned to the model. To the right of the drop down is a Search button which brings up the Manage Weight Sets dialog with the Blending Tab selected. This dialog allows the authorized user to add, delete and modify blending weight sets. This dialog can also be opened using the Manage Weight Sets option on the Tools menu.
Exogenous XDrivers. An Exogenous XDriver is a variable that is passed into the statistical model (in addition to weather variables, calendar variables, and the Bad variable). The exogenous XDrivers can be either an external XDriver or the Model Result from another model. The typical use of an XDriver is to incorporate information about a specific customer, such as production schedules or occupancy levels. XDrivers that are passed into the model from the system must be consistent with the receiving data table in the MetrixND project file. For example, an hourly XDriver can only be passed to an hourly data table.

The assignment of exogenous XDrivers must be coordinated with the Model Template that is being used. For a template to expect an XDriver, there must be a data table in the template that is named the same as one of the XDriver concepts in the system. For example, if there is an XDriver concept named GMP then there must be a data table named GMP in the template. The system records these relationships when templates are brought into the system.

The following fields are enabled when the assigned template requires one or more XDriver concepts. To add an XDriver, select the AddXDriver or AddModel button. The AddXDriver button is activated for general XDriver Concepts. The AddModel button is activated for XDriver Concept that are defined as models. When an XDriver is selected for one of the concepts, the following fields are populated.

XDriver Concept. The table has one row for each Concept that is configured in the template. When an XDriver is selected, the Concept is shown in the first field. Only one XDriver can be assigned for each Concept that is configured in the template.
XDriver ID. This is the text identifier for the XDriver variable that has been selected. It is the same as the text that appears on the XDrivers List tab.
XDriver Type. This is the frequency (MPI) of the XDriver (Monthly, Daily, 60 for hourly, 30 for half hourly, 15 for quarter hourly). The appropriate value will be installed by the system when an XDriver is selected through the user interface.