General Tab

Settings that apply across multiple model types are found on the General Tab. These settings are grouped together as follows:

  • Common Settings.
  • Calendar Settings.
  • Weather Forecast Weights.
  • Forecast Overrides.
  • Estimation.

Common Settings

The Common Settings section of the dialog defines the model’s general configuration properties, interval data units, frequency, status, and assignments for holiday sets, weather weights, and XDriver overrides.

The properties defined in this section are applicable to all modeling options. The scaling and smoothing options apply to all modeling options with the exception of the Pass-Through model method. Fields included in this section are:

  • Model ID. User-assigned text identifier for the Model.
  • Import ID. Unique character string used to find data for a Model in an import file.
  • Description. Text description of the Model.
  • Data Source. Unique character string that identifies the Meter or Meter Group that is assigned to the model. The list of available sources includes sources with an MPI that is different from the model MPI. The source frequency can be higher or lower than the model frequency. For example, an hourly model can have a 15-minute data source. Conversely, a 15-minute model can have an hourly data source.
  • Weather. Unique key indicating the assigned weather zone. Clicking on this cell will open the list of Weather Stations, Weather Zones, and Weather Groups that can be assigned to the model.
  • MPI. Minutes per interval (60 for hourly, 30 for half hourly, 15 for quarter hourly, 10 for ten minute, daily). To forecast using 5-minute data, use the Five Minute Models module.
  • UOM. Unit of measure for the data (e.g., kWh or kW).
  • Scale Method. Scaling is used in retail forecasting systems to adjust for changes in the size of the portfolio when contracts begin or end. When a contract begins, forecasts are scaled upward. When a contract ends, forecasts are scaled downward. The two scaling options are Annual and Monthly. If Annual is selected, annual ADU values will be used to perform the scaling. If Monthly is selected, ADU values for the forecast month are used for scaling.
  • ADU. Average daily energy use for the data source that is assigned to the model.
  • Model ADU. Average daily use for the model computed from the most recent 365 days of predicted values. This value is recalculated whenever the model is estimated.
  • Decimals. Number of decimal places to display.
  • Active. Checking the Active box indicates an Active Item. The Scheduled and Manual System-Wide Forecasts (including System and Medium-Term Forecasts) only include Active Models in the Forecast process. Users may run an inactive model in their session by selecting the item and pressing the Forecast button.
  • Use Gas Day. If checked, gas day energy and weather data will be used for daily models.
  • Smooth Day Transition. If checked, the last two intervals of a day and the first two intervals of the next day are smoothed using a moving average.
  • Fill Forecast with Actuals. If checked, the forecast series will show actual values where historical data is available and forecast values otherwise.
  • Exclude Incomplete Data. If checked, incomplete data will be excluded from model scoring and model estimation.
  • Do Not Fill with Incomplete. If this is checked and Fill Forecast with Actuals is also checked, incomplete actual values will not be used to fill the forecast values.

Calendar Settings

This section of the Model Properties dialog defines the model’s Use Holidays setting and Use Daylight Saving assignments. The Calendar settings are used in Rotation, Regression, Profiling, and Custom MetrixND modeling methods.

Holiday sets are variables that coincide with distinct operational patterns that should be accounted for in the forecast. MetrixIDR is typically delivered with default holiday sets that are relevant to each country and region. Users can modify the default holiday sets or define custom holiday by selecting the Manage Holiday Sets option on the Tools menu or the Holidays button. Calendar settings for a Model are as follows:

  • Use Holidays. If this box is checked, a holiday set is used with Rotation, Regression, Profiling, and Custom MetrixND model methods.
  • Holiday Set. Below the Use Holidays checkbox is a drop-down list that shows the holiday sets that are configured in the system. Select a Holiday Set from this list.
  • Holidays. The button to the right of the Holiday Set drop down brings up the Manage Holiday Sets dialog. This dialog allows the authorized user to add, delete and modify holiday sets.

Daylight Saving settings are used to account for the shift in load that occurs from switching onto and off of daylight-saving time.

  • Use Daylight Saving. Checking this box activates the inclusion of a Daylight-Saving variable in Regression and Rotation model methods.
  • Time Zone. Below the Use Daylight Saving checkbox is a list of configured Time Zones in the system. Select the time zone to use. Time zone settings, including daylight saving settings are initialized in the system database and cannot be modified through the user interface.

Forecast Weight Sets

When multiple weather providers and/or XDriver scenarios are available, model can be configured to generate alternative forecasts for the list of provider/scenario combinations included in a Forecast Weight Set. Weight Sets are configured in the Manage Weight Sets dialog, which can be accessed from the Tools menu or by pressing the Weights button on the General tab of the Model Properties dialog. Weight sets can also be added using file-based imports. In the Model section of the Import Wizard, there are two relevant import options:

  • Model Forecast Weight Sets – to import or modify the properties of a weight set

  • Model Forecast Weights – to import or modify contributors to the weight set, and the provider/scenario settings and weights for the contributors

The properties of a Forecast Weight Set are:

  • Forecast Weight ID. A unique text identifier for the Forecast Weight Set.

  • Description. Descriptive text for the forecast weight set.

  • Generate Top Level Forecast. Enable this check box to generate a top-level forecast in addition to the Weight Set scenario forecasts when a model forecast is run.

The properties of a Forecast Weight Set contributor are:

  • Model Forecast WeightID. The text identifier for a contributor. This ID must be unique within the Weight Set and it is used to identify forecasts that are generated for the contributor.

  • Weather Forecast. The weather provider to use when generating the contributor forecast.

  • XDriver Scenario. The XDriver scenario to use when generating the contributor forecast.

  • Weight. The numeric weight for a contributing scenario.

To assign a weight set to a model, go to the General tab of the Model Properties dialog. On the right-hand side, select the Forecast Weight Set to use from the drop-down list. This list will contain a Default option that is configured when the system is installed and additional options that have been added to the system.

When a forecast is generated for a model that has a weight set assigned, a separate forecast will be generated for each weight set contributor. In addition, if the weight set check box is active, a Top-Level Forecast will be generated that combines the contributor forecasts using the weight values in the weight set.

Forecast Overrides

The Forecast Override Settings define a set of XDriver variables that are applied as final adjustments to the forecast. If the model includes a Forecast Weight Set with multiple weather/XDriver scenarios, the Forecast Overrides are only applied to the Top Level (weighted) forecast for the model. The overrides are not applied to the individual scenarios included in the weight set. There are three types of Forecast Overrides.

  • XDriver Adder. Interval data values for Adder variables will be added to the Forecast.
  • XDriver Multiplier. Interval data values for Multiplier variables will be used multiplicatively to scale the forecast.
  • XDriver Override. Interval data values for Override variables will be used in place of the model generated forecasts.

The browse button to the right of the text box allows the user to find and assign a qualifying XDriver variable. For example, XDrivers that are assigned to a Concept that has the IsAdder property checked will appear in the list of variables that can be used as an XDriver Adder.

These settings can be viewed and edited in the XDrivers Module using the XDriver Configuration tool on the Tools menu.

Prior to version 7.1, it was required that the XDriver override variable had the same frequency as the model to which it is applied. For example, only hourly variables could be assigned as overrides to an hourly model. Starting with version 7.1, the restriction no longer applies. For example, an hourly model can use an override that has a finer frequency (like 15 minutes), in which case the 15-minute values will be averaged (for KW/MW type variables) or summed (for KWh/MWh type of variables) and applied to the hourly model results. An hourly model can also use an override that has a broader frequency (like daily or monthly), in which case the XDriver value for the day or month will be applied to all hours that fall within that day or month.

Estimation

The Estimation group of settings on the General tab has four components.

  • Range Estimation. If this option is selected, the user may specify fixed start and/or end dates for estimation. It is possible to specify a start date, leaving the end date blank so that the most recent data is always used when the model is re-estimated.
  • Rolling Estimation. If this option is selected, the user specifies the number of Days of data to use for estimation, relative to the date/time that estimation occurs. This allows the user to always update the model with more recent data, without increasing the length of the estimation period.
  • Use Seasonal Estimation. This property defines the number of days before and number of days after the current date to use for the estimation. Data that falls within the day range in the current and prior years will be used for estimation. This applies to both Range and Rolling Estimation.
  • Last Estimated. Date indicating the last time the model was estimated.