Statistics Tab

The Statistics Tab calculates forecast accuracy for a range of dates based on historically imported weather forecasts. Forecasts are saved based on Weather Provider and forecast import date/times.

The statistics are calculated for each Weather Provider, weather station/zone, weather concept, the number of days ahead, and the hour forecast. The Weather Provider selection is controlled using the provider selection box on the Explorer (left). The selection boxes are defined as follows.

  • Weather Station. This box selects the weather station.
  • Weather Concept. This box selects the weather concept.
  • Days Ahead. This box controls the forecast day selection. For example, the “1 Day Ahead” option will calculate forecast error for next day errors. If the forecast is saved on July 1, the 1 Day Ahead option will calculate the forecast error for July 2.
  • Hours. This box controls the specifics forecast hourly vintage for the calculation. For example, when 13:00 is selected only forecasts imported during the 13:00 hour of the day will be included in the calculation.

This tab is divided into two section. The top section (Chart View) graphically shows the accuracy statistics for each hour of the day. The bottom section (Grid View) numerically shows the accuracy statistics for each hour of the day.

Chart View

The Chart Views shows the mean absolute deviation (MAD) and Bias for each hour of the day based on the selected Category. The Category is selected in the Grid View. For example, when MTD is selected in the Grid View, the MTD values are displayed in the Chart View. The Chart show statistics for each hour of the days with daily maximum, minimum, and average statistic values shown on the right. Series may be toggled on and off using the selection boxes in the upper right corner.

Grid View

The Grid View numerically shows the statistics. For the selected provider, station/zone, concept, forecast days, and forecast hour, three statistics are shown as defined below.

  • MAD. The Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) is calculated by taking the absolute value of the error, then averaging the absolute value over the number of observations. By calculation, the MAD values will be positive.
  • Bias. The Bias calculates the average error. In this calculation, the error is calculated as the actual value minus the forecast value. The errors are then averaged over the number of observations. By calculation, the Bias value may be positive or negative.
  • Obs. This statistic is the number of observations used to calculate the MAD and Bias.

The statistics are calculated over a variety of date ranges based on the current date and time. These ranges are called, Categories, and may be expanded (+) or contracted (-) to manage viewing the numerical data. The Category options are listed below.

  • WTD (Week to date).
  • MTD (Month to date).
  • YTD (Year to date).
  • Last 7 Days.
  • Last 30 Days.
  • Last 12 Months.
  • Last Week.
  • Last Month.
  • Last Year.

Actions

The following common actions are available in the View Menu, Action Menu, and on the Toolbar.

In addition to the common actions, the Weather Configuration actions are only available on the Tools Menu in the Weather Module.