Average recent load projection

Average Recent Load Projection estimates missing register reads. The estimation set skips this routine if there are no good reads before or after the estimated read. If the time period includes a critical change, this routine uses only the reads after the critical change.

This routine performs the following calculations:

• Calculates the average daily consumption (ADC) by subtracting the earliest good read from the latest good read and then dividing the total by the number of days between the two good reads:

  ADC = Latest Good Read – Earliest Good Read / Days between good reads

• Calculates the estimated register read by multiplying the ADC by the number of days between the estimated read and the closest preceding good read, and then adding the closest preceding good read:

  Estimated Read = (Number of days * ADC)+ closest preceding good read

The routine can extrapolate registers forward, based on the last two available registers. In addition to boundary registers, the routine can use mid-point registers, such as from pick-up reads.

Use the Reading Quality Level setting at Meter Data Management > Tools> Estimation > Estimation Sets to determine the quality of the reads you want used for estimation. If you set Reading Quality Level to High, only actual readings will be used. If you set it to Low, IEE will use both actual and estimated reads.

Example scenario: Meter stops communicating on April 28. The routine will estimate midnight register for April 29 00:00 using the last two actual midnight registers (April 27 00:00 and April 28 00:00). If the Reading Quality Level setting is set to Low, the next day, the routine will estimate midnight register for April 30 00:00 using the April 28 00:00 register (actual) and April 29 00:00 register (estimated). The Apr 26 14:30 mid-point register and Apr 28 00:00 can be used as the anchor registers.

The routine first calculates the Average Daily Consumption (ADC) = Difference between the two anchor registers / Minutes between the two anchor registers. The routine then calculates the estimated register read = closest preceding anchor register + (ADC x number of minutes between register gap and closest preceding anchor register).

The estimation set skips this routine if two anchor registers that meet the specified Reading Quality Level setting are not available. For example: Meter stops communicating. The Reading Quality Level is set to High. Available registers are: Actual register for Apr 28 00:00 and estimated register for Apr 29 00:00. This routine marks the estimated register reads with status ESTAVGLOADPROJ and uses register rollover detection logic. (Example: when using the last two midnight registers (April 27 00:00 and April 28 00:00), it can detect if the Apr 28 00:00 register has rolled over and calculate the register estimate accordingly.)

If there has been a critical configuration change between the anchor registers or between the anchor register and the register gap, the estimation is skipped.

The routine gives the same estimation logic regardless of how the data is imported: ARI, SRI/SRI-E, manual edit, or pick-up read via MDUS. The routine can run as part of an automated estimation or a manual estimation.

For more information about configuring this estimation routine, see Configuring estimation routines: Common parameters.