Load Shaping estimation

The Load Shaping estimation routine, reading status marked as ELS, is used to create and estimate interval reads from a Load Shape reference, with multiple scaling options to adjust the reads. The logic evaluates the parameters from top to bottom, if unable to calculate, it moves to the next one, and so on. Otherwise, it will proceed with the calculation and exit.

When using the Supplier Nominated Annual Consumption (SNAC) value:

  • The SNAC value expires after 12 months.

  • Even if a new or updated Annual Consumption is received, you must continue to use the SNAC value, if the SNAC value is less than 12 months old, even if the new Annual Consumption is more recent.

    • If a supplier provided SNAC is present, and is less than 12 months old, it always takes precedence over the provided Annual Consumption.

  • You must import and store SNAC values in a separate register channel.

  • Always use the SNAC value (if available). Otherwise, use the Annual Consumption provided from the other register channel.

  • If there are multiple values in the register channel, the most recent one will be used.

SNAC parameters:

  • Opt-In. Estimated using load shape reference, adjusted to annual consumption.

    Table 35 Opt-In parameters

    Parameter

    Description

    Notes

    EA12

    • Uses interval read from Load Shape profile (same time stamp)

    • Uses Load Shape Annual rolling total for that day (received from the market)

    • Uses Annual Consumption for the service point (received from the market)

    • Estimated read = Load Shape read / Load Shape Annual total * Annual Consumption Mark it EA12

    This estimation is used as a last resort (after other estimation routines have been exhausted).

    EA12

    • Uses interval read from Load Shape profile (same time stamp)

    • Uses Load Shape 7 day rolling total for that day (received from the market)

    • Uses Annual Consumption for the service point (received from the market)

    • Calculates Average daily usage = Annual Consumption / 365

    • Estimated read = Load Shape read / Load Shape 7 day rolling total * Average daily usage * 7 Mark it EA12

    A variation of the EA12 above, if load shape is less than a year.

  • Opt-Out. Estimated using load shape reference, adjusted to boundary reads or annual consumption.

    Table 36 Opt-Out parameters

    Parameter

    Description

    Notes

    E2

    • If boundary reads for that day are available, calculate daily usage for that day from cumulative daily register reads (boundary reads)

    • Uses Load Shape daily total for that day (received from the market)

    • Uses interval read from Load Shape profile (same time stamp)

    • Estimated read = Load Shape read / Load Shape daily total * Daily usage Mark it E2

     

    E3 or E0

    • If boundary reads for that day are not available, search back/forward to find closest boundary reads spanning the period to be estimated

    • Looks back up to one year

    • Checks if boundary reads have "alternative data source" status code

    • Calculates usage over the N-days period between the boundary reads

    • Calculates total of Load Shape profile for the same N-days period

    • Use interval read from Load Shape profile (same time stamp)

    • Estimated read = Load Shape read / Load Shape N-days total * N-days usage

    • If boundary reads have "alternative data source" status code, mark it E0, otherwise mark it E3

    • Mark E0 if data source = BACKUP2.

    • Mark E3 = if no data source status (meaning the data comes from Service Mode)

     

    E4

    • If boundary reads for that day are not available, search back/forward 3 months

    • Find 4 closest like-days that have boundary reads

    • Calculates Average daily usage from these 4 closest like-days

    • Uses Load Shape daily total for that day (received from the market)

    • Uses interval read from Load Shape profile (same time stamp)

    • Estimated read = Load Shape read / Load Shape daily total * Average daily usage Mark it E4

     

    E5

    • If boundary reads for that day are not available, search back to find most recent 7 consecutive days that have boundary reads

    • Calculates Average daily usage from these 7 consecutive days

    • Uses interval read from Load Shape profile (same time stamp)

    • Uses Load Shape 7 day rolling total for that day (received from the market)

    • Estimated read = Load Shape read / Load Shape 7 day rolling total * Average daily usage * 7 Mark it E5

     

    E7

    • If boundary reads for that day are not available, search back  to find most recent boundary reads covering N-days period

    • Looks back up to one year

    • Calculates Average daily usage from this N-days period

    • Uses interval read from Load Shape profile (same time stamp)

    • Uses Load Shape 7 day rolling total for that day (received from the market)

    • Estimated read = Load Shape read / Load Shape 7 day rolling total * Average daily usage * 7 Mark it E7

     

    E8

    • Uses interval read from Load Shape profile (same time stamp)

    • Uses Load Shape Annual rolling total for that day (received from the market)

    • Uses Annual Consumption for the service point (received from the market)

    • Estimated read = Load Shape read / Load Shape Annual total * Annual Consumption Mark it E8

    Same formula as EA12. The difference is, this scenario is applicable to a small percent of opt-out customers where no interval reads are collected at all.

    E8

    • Uses interval read from Load Shape profile (same time stamp)

    • Uses Load Shape 7 day rolling total for that day (received from the market)

    • Uses Annual Consumption for the service point (received from the market)

    • Calculates Average daily usage = Annual Consumption / 365

    • Estimated read = Load Shape read / Load Shape 7 day rolling total * Average daily usage * 7 Mark it E8

    A variation of the E8 above, if load shape.

Note: If SNAC is available and it is less than 12 months old, always use SNAC as Market Annual Consumption in the calculation. Otherwise, use the Supplier Annual Consumption.

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